AD Ceuta FC v Sporting Gijon

22nd0–27th

15:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Sporting Gijon
14	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	8
6	Corners	3
19	Fouls	12
6	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	6
424	Passes	448
51%	Possession %	49%
1.26	xG	2.62

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Sporting Gijon 46%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.57

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

AD Ceuta FC -0.75

2.93Marathonbet · fair 2.63 · qualifies at 2.71+ · 1.46u

Why this price?

Back AD Ceuta FC -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.93 with Marathonbet — AD Ceuta FC must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 21% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.63. The offered 2.93 implies only 34%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.46 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.16, Sporting Gijon 1.57.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.9%	1.82	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.1%	2.22	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-1.4
Match result	AD Ceuta FC	27.5%	3.64	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-12.5
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.81	3.45 Betano	29.0%	-2.8
Match result	Sporting Gijon	46.3%	2.16	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+13.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.2%	1.31	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.8%	4.20	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.3%	1.95	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+0.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.7%	2.05	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.2%	3.43	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-0.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.8%	1.41	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-3.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sporting Gijon favoured against AD Ceuta FC

Our model makes AD Ceuta FC 27% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 26% and Sporting Gijon at 46%. The goal projection is 1.16 for AD Ceuta FC against 1.57 for Sporting Gijon — a clear edge to Sporting Gijon on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon
AD Ceuta FC		Sporting Gijon
13	Played	13
1-2-10	W-D-L	7-1-5
0.38	Pts / game	1.69
0.77	Goals for / game	1.08
2.31	Goals against / game	1.15
62%	Over 2.5	38%
62%	BTTS	31%
0%	Clean sheets	38%
38%	Failed to score	38%
1-1-5	Home record	3-1-3
0-1-5	Away record	4-0-2
L5	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AD Ceuta FC · Sporting Gijon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.3	Shots	13.7
5.1	Shots on target	4.6
7.1	Corners	4.9
3.13	Cards	3.71
12.4	Fouls	13.0
53	Possession %	51
1.99	xG	1.42
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	12.4
5.3	Shots on target	4.9
3.8	Corners	5.4
3.50	Cards	2.86
18.5	Fouls	11.9
47	Possession %	49
1.99	xG	1.08
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AD Ceuta FC	Metric	Sporting Gijon
1.50	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.50	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
2.54 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.90
	Big chances
5.75 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
21.00 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
8.25 (better)	Corners	4.60
54.3 (better)	Possession %	47.8
406	Passes	415 (better)
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	12.40
1.50	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.75 (better)	Yellow cards	3.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AD Ceuta FC wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sporting Gijon wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

AD Ceuta FC v Sporting Gijon0–22026-11-01
Sporting Gijon v AD Ceuta FC1–22026-05-03
AD Ceuta FC v Sporting Gijon0–12025-08-23

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5