AD Ceuta FC v 
Oviedo
Match statistics
| AD Ceuta FC | Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 15 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 391 | Passes | 383 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 3.45 | xG | 3.00 |
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Over 3.5
- 23%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Oviedo 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.22 – 1.23
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Oviedo +0.25
Why this price?
Back Oviedo +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Marathonbet — Oviedo starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 59% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 59%; we judge it at 59%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.69. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.22, Oviedo 1.23.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AD Ceuta FC | 35.4% | 2.83 | 3.20 Bet365 | 31.3% | +4.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.9% | 3.46 | 3.30 Betano | 30.3% | -1.4 |
| Match result | Oviedo | 35.8% | 2.80 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | -5.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | -2.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | -1.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | -3.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.78 Betano | 56.2% | -0.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | 3.60 BetVictor | 27.8% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -4.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.98 Betano | 50.5% | -1.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo: too close to call
Our model makes AD Ceuta FC 35% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 29% and Oviedo at 36%. The goal projection is 1.22 for AD Ceuta FC against 1.23 for Oviedo — almost nothing to Oviedo on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-0 9%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| AD Ceuta FC | Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 1-2-10 | W-D-L | 6-3-4 |
| 0.38 | Pts / game | 1.62 |
| 0.77 | Goals for / game | 1.46 |
| 2.31 | Goals against / game | 1.23 |
| 62% | Over 2.5 | 62% |
| 62% | BTTS | 54% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 1-1-5 | Home record | 2-2-2 |
| 0-1-5 | Away record | 4-1-2 |
| L5 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AD Ceuta FC · Oviedo
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.3 | Shots | 15.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 7.1 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 3.13 | Cards | 3.63 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 53 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.99 | xG | 1.58 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 12.5 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 3.50 | Cards | 3.27 |
| 18.5 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 47 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.99 | xG | 1.81 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| AD Ceuta FC | Metric | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 1.25 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 0.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.67 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.75 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 16.75 (better) | Total shots | 14.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.25 (better) | Corners | 5.20 |
| 51.3 (better) | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 384 (better) | Passes | 376 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 10.20 (better) |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.00 |
| 0.25 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- AD Ceuta FC wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Oviedo wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo1–22026-10-18
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Almeria won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +18 | 27 | Castellón won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | Burgos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 23 | Eibar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 | Granada CF won 5 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +8 | 22 | Mallorca won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 | Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Girona | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +10 | 21 | Girona won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 21 | Oviedo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 20 | Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 19 | Cordoba won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 | Valladolid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 18 | Sabadell won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 15 | Tenerife won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Eldense | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 14 | Eldense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 | Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 | Leganes won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 | FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 10 | Cadiz won 1 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 | Albacete won 3 of the last 5 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 5 | AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5 |