Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5DWDWD9th1–1Northampton won 2 of the last 5LDWLW21st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Accrington ST
Northampton
17
Shots
7
4
Shots on target
3
4
Corners
6
14
Fouls
14
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
327
Passes
316
51%
Possession %
49%
1.16
xG
0.64
50%
29%
21%
1 · Accrington STXNorthampton · 2
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
18%
Both score
42%
Model pick
Accrington ST 50%
Likely score
1-0 15%
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.80
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Accrington ST
49.8%
2.01
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+5.3
Match result
Draw
29.0%
3.45
3.35 Dafabet
29.9%
-0.9
Match result
Northampton
21.3%
4.70
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-7.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
64.7%
1.55
1.38 BetVictor
72.5%
-7.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
35.3%
2.83
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+4.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
37.2%
2.69
2.15 Bet365
46.5%
-9.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
62.8%
1.59
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
+4.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
17.7%
5.65
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-6.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
82.3%
1.22
1.26 Betano
79.4%
+2.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
41.9%
2.38
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-10.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
58.1%
1.72
1.91 William Hill
52.4%
+5.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Accrington ST favoured against Northampton
Our model makes Accrington ST 50% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 29% and Northampton at 21%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Accrington ST against 0.80 for Northampton — a substantial edge to Accrington ST on expected output. A combined 2.18 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Accrington ST
Metric
Northampton
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
2.12 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.82
—
Big chances *
—
4.20 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
16.00 (better)
Total shots
13.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.20 (better)
Corners
6.25
47.0 (better)
Possession %
45.5
346
Passes
364 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.60 (better)
Fouls
15.25
2.20
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Accrington ST v 
Northampton