Accrington ST v 
Cheltenham
Match statistics
| Accrington ST | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 338 | Passes | 462 |
| 44% | Possession % | 56% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Cheltenham 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.52 – 1.61
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Cheltenham
Why this price?
Back Cheltenham to win at 2.96 with Pinnacle.
Our model puts the chance at 40%, which is a fair price of 2.53. The offered 2.96 implies only 34%, so the price is 17.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Accrington ST 1.52, Cheltenham 1.61.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.91 with Pinnacle — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 38%, which is a fair price of 2.62. The offered 2.91 implies only 34%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.48 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Accrington ST 1.52, Cheltenham 1.61.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Accrington ST | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.80 Betfair | 35.7% | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.0% | 4.01 | 3.50 BetVictor | 28.6% | -3.6 |
| Match result | Cheltenham | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.95 Betano | 33.9% | +5.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | +3.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.4% | 5.75 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -7.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -10.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 3.00 Betfair | 33.3% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | -8.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.62 William Hill | 61.7% | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | -5.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Accrington ST v Cheltenham: too close to call
Our model makes Accrington ST 35% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cheltenham at 40%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Accrington ST against 1.61 for Cheltenham — almost nothing to Cheltenham on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Accrington ST | Cheltenham | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 4-7-3 | W-D-L | 6-3-5 |
| 1.36 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.64 | Goals for / game | 1.64 |
| 1.21 | Goals against / game | 1.79 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 71% |
| 64% | BTTS | 79% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 3-4-0 | Home record | 5-1-1 |
| 1-3-3 | Away record | 1-2-4 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Accrington ST · Cheltenham
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.1 | Shots | 7.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | Shots on target | 2.3 |
| 6.9 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 2.86 |
| 11.9 | Fouls | 11.9 |
| 47 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.21 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 7.7 | Shots | 17.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 10.9 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 53 | Possession % | 51 |
| 0.72 | xG | 1.56 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Accrington ST | Metric | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.24 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 (better) | Shots on target | 3.40 |
| 12.40 (better) | Total shots | 9.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.60 (better) | Corners | 4.20 |
| 46.4 (better) | Possession % | 42.8 |
| 321 | Passes | 355 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.80 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 2.20 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Accrington ST wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Cheltenham wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Accrington ST v Cheltenham2–02026-10-03
- Accrington ST v Cheltenham3–12026-01-31
- Cheltenham v Accrington ST1–02025-09-06
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |