Academica v Amarante

3–2

19:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Academica		Amarante
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Academica 39%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.60

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Academica	39.0%	2.56	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-12.3
Match result	Draw	24.3%	4.12	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-4.3
Match result	Amarante	36.7%	2.72	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.9%	1.19	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	+5.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.1%	6.23	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-10.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.9%	1.59	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	+10.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.1%	2.70	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-15.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.7%	2.46	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+9.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.3%	1.69	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-15.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.9%	1.54	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+9.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.1%	2.85	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-14.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Academica v Amarante: too close to call

Our model makes Academica 39% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 24% and Amarante at 37%. The goal projection is 1.65 for Academica against 1.60 for Amarante — almost nothing to Academica on expected output. A combined 3.24 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Academica and Amarante
Academica		Amarante
2	Played	2
2-0-0	W-D-L	1-0-1
3.00	Pts / game	1.50
3.50	Goals for / game	2.00
1.50	Goals against / game	1.50
100%	Over 2.5	50%
100%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	0%
1-0-0	Home record	0-0-0
1-0-0	Away record	1-0-1
W2	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Academica · Amarante

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Academica	Metric	Amarante
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
2.00	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.00
	Total shots	7.00
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	5.00
	Possession %	44.5
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Academica wins: 1
Draws: 0
Amarante wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Academica v Amarante3–22026-10-17