AC Horsens v Sonderjyske

7th5–112th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AC Horsens		Sonderjyske
17	Shots	19
7	Shots on target	6
2	Corners	4
19	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
355	Passes	404
47%	Possession %	53%
3.82	xG	1.34

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: AC Horsens 49%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.49

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AC Horsens	49.4%	2.02	2.47 Betano	40.5%	+8.9
Match result	Draw	22.5%	4.45	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-5.3
Match result	Sonderjyske	28.1%	3.55	2.90 Dafabet	34.5%	-6.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.8%	1.15	1.25 Betano	80.0%	+6.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.2%	7.58	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-9.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.8%	1.48	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+10.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.2%	3.11	2.15 Betano	46.5%	-14.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.2%	2.16	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	+11.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.8%	1.86	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-14.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.4%	1.48	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+5.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.6%	3.07	2.38 William Hill	42.0%	-9.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AC Horsens favoured against Sonderjyske

Our model makes AC Horsens 49% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Sonderjyske at 28%. The goal projection is 2.01 for AC Horsens against 1.49 for Sonderjyske — a substantial edge to AC Horsens on expected output. A combined 3.49 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for AC Horsens and Sonderjyske
AC Horsens		Sonderjyske
14	Played	14
4-4-6	W-D-L	2-3-9
1.14	Pts / game	0.64
1.64	Goals for / game	1.36
1.64	Goals against / game	2.36
57%	Over 2.5	71%
64%	BTTS	57%
7%	Clean sheets	14%
36%	Failed to score	36%
2-3-2	Home record	2-1-4
2-1-4	Away record	0-2-5
L2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AC Horsens · Sonderjyske

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	12.0
4.8	Shots on target	5.0
3.2	Corners	5.2
2.17	Cards	2.33
18.3	Fouls	15.2
49	Possession %	45
1.76	xG	1.23
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	13.5
5.7	Shots on target	4.8
5.7	Corners	4.0
1.70	Cards	1.20
9.3	Fouls	10.3
51	Possession %	55
1.96	xG	1.92
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AC Horsens	Metric	Sonderjyske
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.78 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
5.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
15.67 (better)	Total shots	13.25
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	4.75 (better)
53.0 (better)	Possession %	42.3
506 (better)	Passes	369
	Tackles
17.33	Fouls	11.75 (better)
1.67 (better)	Offsides	1.75
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AC Horsens wins: 2
Draws: 0
Sonderjyske wins: 0
Goals / game: 6.50
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

AC Horsens v Sonderjyske5–12026-10-25
Sonderjyske v AC Horsens2–52026-09-06

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5