Abha v Al-Ittihad FC

18th1–14th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Abha		Al-Ittihad FC
7	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	7
15	Fouls	7
4	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
298	Passes	493
38%	Possession %	62%
0.76	xG	1.38

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Al-Ittihad FC 59%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.99

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Abha	18.7%	5.34	5.70 Betano	17.5%	+1.2
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+0.6
Match result	Al-Ittihad FC	58.9%	1.70	1.58 Dafabet	63.3%	-4.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.0%	1.24	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.0%	5.26	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+0.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.3%	1.72	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-4.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.7%	2.40	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+2.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.9%	2.79	2.42 Betano	41.3%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.1%	1.56	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.3%	1.78	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.7%	2.29	2.30 Betano	43.5%	+0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Ittihad FC favoured against Abha

Our model makes Abha 19% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Al-Ittihad FC at 59%. The goal projection is 1.04 for Abha against 1.99 for Al-Ittihad FC — a commanding edge to Al-Ittihad FC on expected output. A combined 3.03 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 10%; 0-1 9%; 1-3 7%

This season

Season records for Abha and Al-Ittihad FC
Abha		Al-Ittihad FC
11	Played	11
0-3-8	W-D-L	7-3-1
0.27	Pts / game	2.18
0.64	Goals for / game	1.91
1.73	Goals against / game	1.00
45%	Over 2.5	55%
55%	BTTS	73%
9%	Clean sheets	27%
45%	Failed to score	9%
0-2-3	Home record	4-1-0
0-1-5	Away record	3-2-1
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Abha · Al-Ittihad FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.5	Shots	14.0
3.0	Shots on target	5.8
5.5	Corners	6.5
2.00	Cards	2.00
12.3	Fouls	9.0
43	Possession %	55
0.84	xG	2.07
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.5	Shots	11.0
3.8	Shots on target	4.3
5.0	Corners	5.5
1.00	Cards	3.25
11.8	Fouls	11.8
57	Possession %	45
1.38	xG	1.46
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Abha	Metric	Al-Ittihad FC
0.67	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.33 (better)	Goals conceded	1.75
0.43	Expected goals (xG)	1.89 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	6.50 (better)
7.00	Total shots	15.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
1.67	Corners	6.25 (better)
38.3	Possession %	58.8 (better)
350	Passes	512 (better)
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	9.25
2.67	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Abha wins: 0
Draws: 1
Al-Ittihad FC wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Abha v Al-Ittihad FC1–12026-10-30

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5