Aarhus v Viborg

8th2–13rd

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Aarhus		Viborg
20	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	5
10	Corners	3
13	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
490	Passes	427
53%	Possession %	47%
2.29	xG	0.78

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Aarhus 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.46

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Viborg +0.25

2.13Marathonbet · fair 1.90 · qualifies at 1.96+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Viborg +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.13 with Marathonbet — Viborg starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.90. The offered 2.13 implies only 47%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Aarhus 1.49, Viborg 1.46.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Aarhus	37.9%	2.64	2.45 Bet365	40.8%	-3.0
Match result	Draw	25.7%	3.90	3.70 Betano	27.0%	-1.4
Match result	Viborg	36.5%	2.74	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.9%	1.25	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.1%	4.98	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+0.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.6%	1.77	1.60 Bet365	62.5%	-5.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.4%	2.30	2.40 Betano	41.7%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.2%	2.92	2.60 BetVictor	38.5%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.8%	1.52	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.1%	1.67	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-5.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.9%	2.50	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aarhus v Viborg: too close to call

Our model makes Aarhus 38% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Viborg at 36%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Aarhus against 1.46 for Viborg — almost nothing to Aarhus on expected output. A combined 2.95 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Aarhus and Viborg
Aarhus		Viborg
14	Played	14
3-6-5	W-D-L	8-2-4
1.07	Pts / game	1.86
1.36	Goals for / game	1.57
1.50	Goals against / game	0.93
57%	Over 2.5	50%
64%	BTTS	50%
14%	Clean sheets	36%
21%	Failed to score	21%
3-3-1	Home record	5-0-2
0-3-4	Away record	3-2-2
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Aarhus · Viborg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	17.8
3.5	Shots on target	5.3
4.5	Corners	5.7
1.33	Cards	1.67
9.7	Fouls	10.7
52	Possession %	49
1.50	xG	2.01
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	14.8
4.8	Shots on target	3.8
6.0	Corners	4.5
2.17	Cards	2.33
16.8	Fouls	12.8
48	Possession %	51
1.47	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Aarhus	Metric	Viborg
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
0.90	Expected goals (xG)	2.39 (better)
	Big chances
2.67	Shots on target	4.67 (better)
9.00	Total shots	16.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.33	Corners	5.67 (better)
49.0 (better)	Possession %	47.3
472 (better)	Passes	456
	Tackles
10.33 (better)	Fouls	11.67
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
1.33	Yellow cards	0.67 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Aarhus wins: 5
Draws: 0
Viborg wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.50
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Aarhus v Viborg2–12026-10-25
Viborg v Aarhus2–12026-08-14
Aarhus v Viborg6–22026-05-17
Viborg v Aarhus1–22026-04-06
Aarhus v Viborg5–22026-02-22
Viborg v Aarhus1–22025-09-14

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5