Aarhus v 
SC Braga
Match statistics
| Aarhus | SC Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 26 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 512 | Passes | 406 |
| 55% | Possession % | 45% |
| 1.57 | xG | 2.35 |
- Over 1.5
- 74%
- Over 2.5
- 49%
- Over 3.5
- 27%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- SC Braga 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.28 – 1.35
Advised bets
Void
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Aarhus 0
Why this price?
Back Aarhus 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.75 with Bet365 — Aarhus to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.46. The offered 2.75 implies only 36%, so the price is 12.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.71 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Aarhus 1.28, SC Braga 1.35.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Aarhus | 34.7% | 2.88 | 4.10 Betano | 24.4% | +10.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.65 Dafabet | 27.4% | +0.1 |
| Match result | SC Braga | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | -10.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | -2.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 25.6% | 3.90 | 3.60 BetVictor | 27.8% | -2.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | -1.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 27.0% | 3.71 | 3.50 BetVictor | 28.6% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.36 Betano | 73.5% | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | -1.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Aarhus v SC Braga: too close to call
Our model makes Aarhus 35% to win this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, with the draw at 27% and SC Braga at 38%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Aarhus against 1.35 for SC Braga — almost nothing to SC Braga on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Aarhus | SC Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 11 |
| 3-6-5 | W-D-L | 5-2-4 |
| 1.07 | Pts / game | 1.55 |
| 1.36 | Goals for / game | 1.18 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 55% |
| 64% | BTTS | 45% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 45% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 3-0-2 |
| 0-3-4 | Away record | 2-2-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Aarhus · SC Braga
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.1 | Shots | 15.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.61 | Cards | 2.11 |
| 10.1 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.31 | xG | 1.47 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 17.4 | Shots | 8.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 3.1 |
| 6.4 | Corners | 2.3 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 2.42 |
| 15.4 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.58 | xG | 0.90 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Aarhus | Metric | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.50 | Shots on target | 4.60 (better) |
| 10.00 | Total shots | 16.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.50 | Corners | 4.80 (better) |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 59.2 (better) |
| 431 | Passes | 575 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.25 (better) | Fouls | 13.00 |
| 0.25 (better) | Offsides | 1.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Aarhus wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- SC Braga wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 0.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Aarhus v SC Braga0–02026-11-05
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 | FC Lugano won 3 of the last 3 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Panathinaikos won 3 of the last 3 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Twente won 3 of the last 3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 | Monaco won 3 of the last 3 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 | Brighton won 2 of the last 3 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Brann won 2 of the last 3 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 3 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Universitatea Craiova won 2 of the last 3 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 | Mjallby AIF won 2 of the last 3 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 | St. Truiden won 2 of the last 3 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 | 6 | Ajax won 2 of the last 3 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 | Trabzonspor won 2 of the last 3 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | HNK Hajduk Split won 2 of the last 3 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | SC Freiburg won 2 of the last 3 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | FK Crvena Zvezda won 1 of the last 3 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Atalanta won 1 of the last 3 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 3 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | Gent won 1 of the last 3 |
| 19 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | FC Thun won 1 of the last 3 |
| 20 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Riga won 0 of the last 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 | Borac Banja Luka won 1 of the last 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC won 1 of the last 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | FK Jablonec won 0 of the last 3 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | Aarhus won 0 of the last 3 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | FC Nordsjaelland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë won 0 of the last 3 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 | Kairat Almaty won 0 of the last 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | CSKA Sofia won 0 of the last 3 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 | FC Iberia 1999 won 0 of the last 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Getafe won 0 of the last 3 |
| 31 | Pafos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Pafos won 0 of the last 3 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | Heart Of Midlothian won 0 of the last 3 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 | KuPS won 0 of the last 3 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 | FC Midtjylland won 0 of the last 3 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 | Inter Club d'Escaldes won 0 of the last 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 | Kauno Žalgiris won 0 of the last 3 |