Slovan Liberec v Baník Ostrava

2nd13th

13:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 43%

Model pick: Slovan Liberec 52%
Likely score: 1-0 15%
Expected goals: 1.45 – 0.79

Advised bets

PendingMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Slovan Liberec -0.75

1.75Bet365 · best now · fair 1.57 · qualifies at 1.61+ · 2.00uPublished at 1.75 (Marathonbet) unchanged

Why this price?

Back Slovan Liberec -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Marathonbet — Slovan Liberec must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 64%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.57. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Slovan Liberec 1.45, Baník Ostrava 0.79.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Slovan Liberec	52.0%	1.92	1.63 Dafabet	61.3%	-9.3
Match result	Draw	28.0%	3.57	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	+3.7
Match result	Baník Ostrava	19.9%	5.02	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	+0.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.2%	1.51	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-13.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.8%	2.96	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+11.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.9%	2.57	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-16.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	61.1%	1.64	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+16.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.9%	5.29	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-14.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.1%	1.23	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+13.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	42.5%	2.35	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-12.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	57.5%	1.74	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+9.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Slovan Liberec favoured against Baník Ostrava

Our model makes Slovan Liberec 52% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Baník Ostrava at 20%. The goal projection is 1.45 for Slovan Liberec against 0.79 for Baník Ostrava — a substantial edge to Slovan Liberec on expected output. A combined 2.24 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 15%; 1-1 13%; 0-0 11%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava
Slovan Liberec		Baník Ostrava
13	Played	13
8-2-3	W-D-L	4-2-7
2.00	Pts / game	1.08
1.23	Goals for / game	0.77
0.62	Goals against / game	1.77
31%	Over 2.5	62%
31%	BTTS	31%
46%	Clean sheets	31%
31%	Failed to score	46%
3-1-2	Home record	2-1-3
5-1-1	Away record	2-1-4
W2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Slovan Liberec · Baník Ostrava

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.3	Shots	11.5
5.8	Shots on target	4.0
7.5	Corners	6.0
1.50	Cards	2.00
13.8	Fouls	12.5
56	Possession %	51
1.62	xG	0.98
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.8	Shots	15.0
3.8	Shots on target	5.0
4.3	Corners	4.0
2.25	Cards	2.33
11.0	Fouls	9.5
44	Possession %	49
1.40	xG	2.14
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Slovan Liberec	Metric	Baník Ostrava
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.77 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.55
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.33
20.00 (better)	Total shots	12.67
	Touches in opp. box
6.33 (better)	Corners	5.00
53.7	Possession %	53.7
384	Passes	421 (better)
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	12.67 (better)
1.33 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.33 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Slovan Liberec wins: 2
Draws: 0
Baník Ostrava wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Slovan Liberec v Baník Ostrava1–02026-02-15
Baník Ostrava v Slovan Liberec0–22025-09-13

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5