Predicted Edge

Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club

Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 514th0–0Athletic Club won 2 of the last 57th
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Rayo Vallecano 48%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.08

Advised bets

PendingMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 2 of 5

Athletic Club +0.25

2.20Bet365 · best now · fair 1.93 · qualifies at 1.99+ · 1.17uPublished at 2.02 (Bet365)longer by 9% 9%
Why this price?

Back Athletic Club +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.02 with Bet365 — Athletic Club starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 57%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.93. The offered 2.02 implies only 50%, so the price is 4.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.17 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.57, Athletic Club 1.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultRayo Vallecano48.1%2.083.00 Betano33.3%+14.8
Match resultDraw26.6%3.763.45 Dafabet29.0%-2.4
Match resultAthletic Club25.3%3.962.65 Dafabet37.7%-12.5
Total goalsOver 1.574.9%1.331.34 Betano74.6%+0.3
Total goalsUnder 1.525.1%3.993.50 Bet36528.6%-3.5
Total goalsOver 2.549.4%2.022.02 Betano49.5%-0.1
Total goalsUnder 2.550.6%1.981.93 Betano51.8%-1.2
Total goalsOver 3.527.5%3.643.60 Betfair27.8%-0.3
Total goalsUnder 3.572.5%1.381.38 Betano72.5%+0.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes53.0%1.891.75 William Hill57.1%-4.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No47.0%2.132.20 Betfair45.5%+1.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Rayo Vallecano favoured against Athletic Club

Our model makes Rayo Vallecano 48% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Athletic Club at 25%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Rayo Vallecano against 1.08 for Athletic Club — a clear edge to Rayo Vallecano on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
2-0 9%
0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano Athletic Club
11Played11
3-3-5W-D-L4-4-3
1.09Pts / game1.45
1.36Goals for / game1.36
1.91Goals against / game1.00
64%Over 2.545%
73%BTTS45%
9%Clean sheets45%
18%Failed to score27%
3-1-1Home record3-2-1
0-2-4Away record1-2-2
L1StreakD1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rayo Vallecano · Athletic Club

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.5Shots15.7
4.2Shots on target3.8
4.7Corners5.2
2.83Cards1.87
11.0Fouls11.8
58Possession %59
1.49xG1.74
6 matchessample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2Shots11.3
4.0Shots on target3.5
5.0Corners4.0
3.07Cards2.70
14.3Fouls14.5
43Possession %41
1.37xG0.98
6 matchessample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rayo VallecanoMetricAthletic Club
1.80 (better)Goals scored1.20
2.60Goals conceded0.60 (better)
1.31Expected goals (xG)1.69 (better)
Big chances
5.20 (better)Shots on target4.00
16.00 (better)Total shots15.20
Touches in opp. box
5.20Corners5.40 (better)
48.4Possession %50.0 (better)
402Passes475 (better)
Tackles
12.40Fouls11.20 (better)
1.00 (better)Offsides1.80
Throw-ins
2.40Yellow cards2.00 (better)
1.00Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Rayo Vallecano wins
0
Draws
1
Athletic Club wins
1
Goals / game
1.50
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
50%
La Liga table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Barcelona121101+3533Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2Real Madrid121002+2130Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3Atletico Madrid12912+1328Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4Real Betis12822+526Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5Real Sociedad12714+122Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6Sevilla12534-218Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7Athletic Club11443+416Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8Villarreal12435+215Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9Deportivo La Coruna12363+115Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10Racing Santander12426-1314Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11Celta Vigo12273013Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12Alaves12345-213Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13Espanyol12336-112Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14Rayo Vallecano11335-612Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15Getafe12336-1012Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16Osasuna12336-1112Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17Levante12255-511Levante won 1 of the last 5
18Elche12246-610Elche won 1 of the last 5
19Valencia12237-129Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20Malaga12057-145Malaga won 0 of the last 5