Predicted Edge

Netherlands U17 v United States U17

1–2Netherlands U17Netherlands U17 won 0 of the last 2United States U17United States U17 won 1 of the last 3
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Netherlands U17 39%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketFree

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultNetherlands U1739.1%2.56———
Match resultDraw26.4%3.79———
Match resultUnited States U1734.5%2.90———
Total goalsOver 1.578.5%1.27———
Total goalsUnder 1.521.5%4.64———
Total goalsOver 2.554.3%1.84———
Total goalsUnder 2.545.7%2.19———
Total goalsOver 3.532.0%3.13———
Total goalsUnder 3.568.0%1.47———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.4%1.71———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.6%2.40———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Premium markets

No premium selection on this fixture yet
  • Asian handicap
  • Correct score
  • Total goals

The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.

Netherlands U17 v United States U17: too close to call

Our model makes Netherlands U17 39% to win this Friendlies fixture, with the draw at 26% and United States U17 at 35%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Netherlands U17 against 1.38 for United States U17 — a slight edge to Netherlands U17 on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Netherlands U17 and United States U17
Netherlands U17 United States U17
2Played3
0-1-1W-D-L1-0-2
0.50Pts / game1.00
2.00Goals for / game0.67
2.50Goals against / game2.00
100%Over 2.567%
100%BTTS33%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score67%
0-0-1Home record0-0-0
0-1-0Away record1-0-2
L1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Netherlands U17 · United States U17

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Netherlands U17MetricUnited States U17
2.00 (better)Goals scored0.80
1.75Goals conceded1.40 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target5.50
Total shots15.50
Touches in opp. box
Corners7.00
Possession %60.0
Passes460
Tackles
Fouls16.50
Offsides1.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.00
Red cards1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Netherlands U17 wins
1
Draws
0
United States U17 wins
1
Goals / game
2.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
50%