JEF United Chiba v 
Mito Hollyhock
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- JEF United Chiba 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 1.28
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
JEF United Chiba favoured against Mito Hollyhock
Our model makes JEF United Chiba 42% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mito Hollyhock at 32%. The goal projection is 1.50 for JEF United Chiba against 1.28 for Mito Hollyhock — a slight edge to JEF United Chiba on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| JEF United Chiba | Mito Hollyhock | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 2-4-7 | W-D-L | 2-3-8 |
| 0.77 | Pts / game | 0.69 |
| 1.15 | Goals for / game | 0.92 |
| 1.85 | Goals against / game | 1.92 |
| 62% | Over 2.5 | 46% |
| 54% | BTTS | 54% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 46% |
| 2-2-2 | Home record | 1-2-4 |
| 0-2-5 | Away record | 1-1-4 |
| W1 | Streak | L7 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. JEF United Chiba · Mito Hollyhock
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.4 | Shots | 5.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 1.6 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.20 |
| 14.6 | Fouls | 8.6 |
| 45 | Possession % | 40 |
| 1.56 | xG | 0.38 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 12.8 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 6.6 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 0.80 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 55 | Possession % | 60 |
| 0.96 | xG | 1.79 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| JEF United Chiba | Metric | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.20 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 3.00 |
| 1.74 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.40 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.75 (better) | Shots on target | 1.50 |
| 14.50 (better) | Total shots | 5.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Corners | 1.75 |
| 43.0 (better) | Possession % | 35.3 |
| 332 | Passes | 338 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.25 | Fouls | 8.00 (better) |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 0.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.25 | Yellow cards | 0.50 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.67 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- JEF United Chiba wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Mito Hollyhock wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- JEF United Chiba v Mito Hollyhock1–12026-04-11
- Mito Hollyhock v JEF United Chiba1–12026-02-22
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +22 | 29 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +20 | 28 | Machida Zelvia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 26 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 21 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 | Cerezo Osaka won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | JEF United Chiba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 10 | JEF United Chiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |