Gamba Osaka v 
Cerezo Osaka
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 59%
- Model pick
- Gamba Osaka 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.59 – 1.33
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gamba Osaka favoured against Cerezo Osaka
Our model makes Gamba Osaka 43% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Cerezo Osaka at 31%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Gamba Osaka against 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka — a clear edge to Gamba Osaka on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Gamba Osaka | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 2-6-5 | W-D-L | 3-5-5 |
| 0.92 | Pts / game | 1.08 |
| 1.08 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.62 | Goals against / game | 1.77 |
| 46% | Over 2.5 | 46% |
| 54% | BTTS | 54% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 1-2-2 | Home record | 3-3-1 |
| 1-4-3 | Away record | 0-2-4 |
| D2 | Streak | L1 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gamba Osaka · Cerezo Osaka
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.8 | Shots | 14.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 1.40 | Cards | 3.40 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 50 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.12 | xG | 1.08 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.8 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 1.80 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 50 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.05 | xG | 1.40 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Gamba Osaka | Metric | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.40 |
| 1.98 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.30 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.60 (better) | Shots on target | 3.75 |
| 15.80 (better) | Total shots | 15.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 2.75 |
| 58.6 (better) | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 515 (better) | Passes | 458 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 10.25 (better) |
| 2.80 | Offsides | 0.75 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.00 |
| 0.25 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Gamba Osaka wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Cerezo Osaka wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 0.50
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Gamba Osaka v Cerezo Osaka0–12026-04-11
- Cerezo Osaka v Gamba Osaka0–02026-02-07
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +22 | 29 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +20 | 28 | Machida Zelvia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +9 | 26 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 21 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 14 | Cerezo Osaka won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | JEF United Chiba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 10 | JEF United Chiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |