Atromitos won 1 of the last 5DWLLL12thAEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5WLWWW3rd
19%
25%
56%
1 · AtromitosXAEK Athens FC · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
50%
Model pick
AEK Athens FC 56%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.74
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Atromitos
19.1%
5.23
8.00 Betfair
12.5%
+6.6
Match result
Draw
24.7%
4.04
4.45 Betano
22.5%
+2.3
Match result
AEK Athens FC
56.1%
1.78
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-12.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.8%
1.34
1.27 Betano
78.7%
-4.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.2%
3.96
3.85 Betano
26.0%
-0.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.4%
2.02
1.82 Betano
54.9%
-5.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.6%
1.98
2.05 Betano
48.8%
+1.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.5%
3.64
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
-4.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.5%
1.38
1.42 Betano
70.4%
+2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.9%
2.00
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+2.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.1%
2.00
1.80 Betfair
55.6%
-5.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AEK Athens FC favoured against Atromitos
Our model makes Atromitos 19% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 25% and AEK Athens FC at 56%. The goal projection is 0.91 for Atromitos against 1.74 for AEK Athens FC — a substantial edge to AEK Athens FC on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atromitos
Metric
AEK Athens FC
0.80
Goals scored
3.40 (better)
1.00
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
0.72
Expected goals (xG)
2.33 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.67
Shots on target
4.75 (better)
11.33
Total shots
17.75 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.67
Corners
4.75 (better)
50.7
Possession %
57.8 (better)
393
Passes
464 (better)
—
Tackles
—
17.33
Fouls
12.75 (better)
2.33 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.67
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Atromitos v 
AEK Athens FC