Predicted Edge

Al-Nassr v Al-Wasl FC

Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 53rdAl-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 323rd
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
47%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Al-Nassr 67%
Likely score
2-1 10%
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.08

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAl-Nassr67.1%1.491.34 Dafabet74.6%-7.6
Match resultDraw18.4%5.445.80 Dafabet17.2%+1.1
Match resultAl-Wasl FC14.6%6.878.60 Dafabet11.6%+2.9
Total goalsOver 1.587.1%1.151.13 Betano88.5%-1.4
Total goalsUnder 1.512.9%7.756.00 Betfair16.7%-3.8
Total goalsOver 2.568.4%1.461.42 Betano70.4%-2.0
Total goalsUnder 2.531.6%3.172.75 Betfair36.4%-4.8
Total goalsOver 3.546.9%2.132.15 Betfair46.5%+0.4
Total goalsUnder 3.553.1%1.881.80 Betfair55.6%-2.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes60.7%1.651.80 Betfair55.6%+5.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.3%2.542.15 Betfair46.5%-7.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Nassr favoured against Al-Wasl FC

Our model makes Al-Nassr 67% to win this AFC Champions League Elite fixture, with the draw at 18% and Al-Wasl FC at 15%. The goal projection is 2.45 for Al-Nassr against 1.08 for Al-Wasl FC — a commanding edge to Al-Nassr on expected output. A combined 3.53 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Al-Nassr is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-1 10%
2-0 9%
1-1 8%
3-1 8%
3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Al-Nassr and Al-Wasl FC
Al-Nassr Al-Wasl FC
11Played3
9-1-1W-D-L1-0-2
2.55Pts / game1.00
2.55Goals for / game2.00
1.00Goals against / game2.67
82%Over 2.5100%
64%BTTS100%
36%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score0%
6-0-0Home record1-0-1
3-1-1Away record0-0-1
W4StreakW1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Nassr · Al-Wasl FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0Shots15.0
6.0Shots on target4.5
5.8Corners5.5
1.00Cards2.00
12.7Fouls14.0
55Possession %61
2.48xG1.90
6 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.2Shots9.0
2.7Shots on target4.0
4.2Corners2.0
2.33Cards1.00
10.7Fouls10.0
45Possession %39
1.15xG1.38
6 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-NassrMetricAl-Wasl FC
1.75Goals scored2.40 (better)
1.50Goals conceded1.20 (better)
1.96 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.67
Big chances
4.50 (better)Shots on target4.00
15.75 (better)Total shots13.50
Touches in opp. box
8.50 (better)Corners7.50
59.0 (better)Possession %58.5
465 (better)Passes446
Tackles
9.50Fouls9.50
2.50Offsides1.00 (better)
Throw-ins
1.50Yellow cards1.50
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

No previous meetings on record.

AFC Champions League Elite table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Al Ain4400+1112Al Ain won 4 of the last 4
2Vissel Kobe4400+512Vissel Kobe won 4 of the last 4
3Kashima4310+1010Kashima won 3 of the last 4
4Al-Hilal Saudi FC4301+39Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3 of the last 4
5Esteghlal FC4301+39Esteghlal FC won 3 of the last 4
6Shabab Al Ahli Dubai4301+29Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3 of the last 4
7Al-Qadisiyah FC4220+68Al-Qadisiyah FC won 2 of the last 4
8Gamba Osaka4220+58Gamba Osaka won 2 of the last 4
9Al-Ahli Jeddah4220+38Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 of the last 4
10Kashiwa Reysol4211+57Kashiwa Reysol won 2 of the last 4
11SHANGHAI SIPG4211+37SHANGHAI SIPG won 2 of the last 4
12Johor Darul Takzim FC4211+37Johor Darul Takzim FC won 2 of the last 4
13Kyoto Sanga4211+37Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 4
14Jeonbuk Motors4211+17Jeonbuk Motors won 2 of the last 4
15Beijing Guoan421107Beijing Guoan won 2 of the last 4
16Al-Nassr3201+26Al-Nassr won 2 of the last 3
17Al Shamal4121+15Al Shamal won 1 of the last 4
18Neftchi4112-24Neftchi won 1 of the last 4
19Daejeon Citizen4112-24Daejeon Citizen won 1 of the last 4
20Al-Ittihad FC4112-34Al-Ittihad FC won 1 of the last 4
21Công An Nhân Dân4112-34Công An Nhân Dân won 1 of the last 4
22Buriram United4031-13Buriram United won 0 of the last 4
23Al-Wasl FC3102-23Al-Wasl FC won 1 of the last 3
24Al Quwa Al Jawiya4103-43Al Quwa Al Jawiya won 1 of the last 4
25Port FC4103-53Port FC won 1 of the last 4
26Tractor Sazi4022-22Tractor Sazi won 0 of the last 4
27Pakhtakor4022-52Pakhtakor won 0 of the last 4
28Al Sadd4022-52Al Sadd won 0 of the last 4
29Ratchaburi4013-41Ratchaburi won 0 of the last 4
30Pohang Steelers4013-71Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 4
31Al-Gharafa4004-80Al-Gharafa won 0 of the last 4
32Newcastle Jets4004-130Newcastle Jets won 0 of the last 4