Al Kholood v 
Al Khaleej Saihat
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- Al Khaleej Saihat 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 1.60
Advised bets
PendingMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Al Kholood -0.5
Why this price?
Back Al Kholood -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.07 with Betano — Al Kholood must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 62%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.95. The offered 2.07 implies only 48%, so the price is 6.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.49 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Al Kholood 1.49, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.60.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Al Kholood | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | -4.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.30 Betfair | 30.3% | -5.4 |
| Match result | Al Khaleej Saihat | 39.8% | 2.51 | 3.30 Betfair | 30.3% | +9.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | +5.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.0% | 5.55 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -8.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | +7.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -11.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.4% | 2.68 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | +7.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | -10.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | +4.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -8.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Al Kholood v Al Khaleej Saihat: too close to call
Our model makes Al Kholood 35% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Al Khaleej Saihat at 40%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Al Kholood against 1.60 for Al Khaleej Saihat — a slight edge to Al Khaleej Saihat on expected output. A combined 3.09 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| Al Kholood | Al Khaleej Saihat | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 12 |
| 3-3-5 | W-D-L | 3-6-3 |
| 1.09 | Pts / game | 1.25 |
| 1.55 | Goals for / game | 1.17 |
| 2.36 | Goals against / game | 1.58 |
| 73% | Over 2.5 | 42% |
| 73% | BTTS | 58% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 3-0-2 | Home record | 2-3-1 |
| 0-3-3 | Away record | 1-3-2 |
| L5 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al Kholood · Al Khaleej Saihat
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.5 | Shots | 11.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.25 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2.34 | xG | 1.86 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 15.5 | Shots | 14.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 8.0 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.40 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 53 | Possession % | 51 |
| 3.03 | xG | 1.63 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Al Kholood | Metric | Al Khaleej Saihat |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 2.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 2.00 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 (better) | Shots on target | 3.20 |
| 16.00 (better) | Total shots | 9.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 (better) | Corners | 5.00 |
| 50.6 (better) | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 395 (better) | Passes | 357 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.20 (better) | Fouls | 12.20 |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Al Kholood wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Al Khaleej Saihat wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Al Kholood v Al Khaleej Saihat2–22026-04-03
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al Kholood2–32026-02-24
Saudi Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +23 | 30 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +20 | 28 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 28 | Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 | NEOM won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | +9 | 21 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 19 | Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 15 | Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 14 | Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 | Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 12 | Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 | Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 3 | Abha won 0 of the last 5 |