Al-Ittihad FC v NEOM

4th5th

17:30 UTC

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Al-Ittihad FC 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.15

Advised bets

PendingMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Al-Ittihad FC -0.5

2.02Betano · best now · fair 1.78 · qualifies at 1.83+ · 2.00uPublished at 1.98 (Betano) 2%

Why this price?

Back Al-Ittihad FC -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with Betano — Al-Ittihad FC must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.78. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Al-Ittihad FC 1.52, NEOM 1.15.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Al-Ittihad FC	45.2%	2.21	2.17 Dafabet	46.1%	-0.9
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.75	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+0.4
Match result	NEOM	28.1%	3.56	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.2%	1.33	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-7.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.8%	4.03	4.45 Betano	22.5%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.9%	2.00	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.1%	2.00	2.30 Betano	43.5%	+6.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.9%	3.58	2.57 Betano	38.9%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.1%	1.39	1.53 Betano	65.4%	+6.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.0%	1.85	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-9.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.0%	2.17	2.40 Betano	41.7%	+4.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Al-Ittihad FC favoured against NEOM

Our model makes Al-Ittihad FC 45% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 27% and NEOM at 28%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Al-Ittihad FC against 1.15 for NEOM — a clear edge to Al-Ittihad FC on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Al-Ittihad FC and NEOM
Al-Ittihad FC		NEOM
11	Played	12
7-3-1	W-D-L	7-1-4
2.18	Pts / game	1.83
1.91	Goals for / game	1.50
1.00	Goals against / game	0.83
55%	Over 2.5	33%
73%	BTTS	33%
27%	Clean sheets	33%
9%	Failed to score	33%
4-1-0	Home record	4-0-2
3-2-1	Away record	3-1-2
D1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Al-Ittihad FC · NEOM

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	11.2
5.8	Shots on target	3.4
6.5	Corners	5.2
2.00	Cards	1.40
9.0	Fouls	13.2
55	Possession %	56
2.07	xG	1.22
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	10.8
4.3	Shots on target	2.6
5.5	Corners	2.6
3.25	Cards	1.80
11.8	Fouls	12.0
45	Possession %	44
1.46	xG	1.16
4 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Al-Ittihad FC	Metric	NEOM
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.89 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.84
	Big chances
6.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
16.60 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
6.40 (better)	Corners	5.33
55.6 (better)	Possession %	52.7
486 (better)	Passes	451
	Tackles
8.80 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.60 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Al-Ittihad FC wins: 1
Draws: 0
NEOM wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.50
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Al-Ittihad FC v NEOM3–42026-04-08
NEOM v Al-Ittihad FC1–32025-12-31

Saudi Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	11	10	0	1	+23	30	Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	12	9	1	2	+20	28	Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5
3	Al-Nassr	11	9	1	1	+17	28	Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5
4	Al-Ittihad FC	11	7	3	1	+10	24	Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5
5	NEOM	12	7	1	4	+8	22	NEOM won 2 of the last 5
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	11	7	0	4	+9	21	Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5
7	Al-Ettifaq	12	5	4	3	+1	19	Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5
8	Al Diriyah	12	4	3	5	-3	15	Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5
9	Al Khaleej Saihat	12	3	6	3	-5	15	Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5
10	Al Shabab	11	3	5	3	+5	14	Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5
11	Al Kholood	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5
12	Al Riyadh	11	3	3	5	-14	12	Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5
13	Al-Fayha	12	2	5	5	-4	11	Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5
14	Al-Hazm	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5
15	Al-Faisaly FC	12	2	4	6	-11	10	Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5
16	Al-Fateh	12	1	3	8	-15	6	Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5
17	Al Taawon	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5
18	Abha	11	0	3	8	-12	3	Abha won 0 of the last 5