Abha v 
Al Kholood
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Al Kholood 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.38 – 1.47
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | +0.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | -4.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 31.7% | 3.15 | 3.10 BetVictor | 32.3% | -0.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68.3% | 1.47 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -3.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | -3.6 |
| Match result | Abha | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.87 Betano | 34.8% | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.4% | 3.78 | 3.50 Betano | 28.6% | -2.1 |
| Match result | Al Kholood | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | -2.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.28 Betano | 78.1% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.7% | 4.61 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | -3.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Abha v Al Kholood: too close to call
Our model makes Abha 35% to win this Saudi Pro League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Al Kholood at 39%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Abha against 1.47 for Al Kholood — almost nothing to Al Kholood on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 8%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Abha | Al Kholood | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 0-3-8 | W-D-L | 3-3-5 |
| 0.27 | Pts / game | 1.09 |
| 0.64 | Goals for / game | 1.55 |
| 1.73 | Goals against / game | 2.36 |
| 45% | Over 2.5 | 73% |
| 55% | BTTS | 73% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 0-2-3 | Home record | 3-0-2 |
| 0-1-5 | Away record | 0-3-3 |
| D1 | Streak | L5 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Abha · Al Kholood
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 8.5 | Shots | 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.25 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 43 | Possession % | 47 |
| 0.84 | xG | 2.34 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 9.5 | Shots | 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 8.0 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 57 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.38 | xG | 3.03 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Abha | Metric | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.50 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 0.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.54 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.50 | Shots on target | 3.80 (better) |
| 8.00 | Total shots | 12.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 1.50 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 41.3 | Possession % | 49.0 (better) |
| 341 | Passes | 388 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.75 | Fouls | 11.20 (better) |
| 3.25 | Offsides | 1.40 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 | Yellow cards | 2.20 (better) |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →No previous meetings on record.
Saudi Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +23 | 30 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +20 | 28 | Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 28 | Al-Nassr won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | Al-Ittihad FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 | NEOM won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | +9 | 21 | Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 19 | Al-Ettifaq won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | Al Diriyah won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -5 | 15 | Al Khaleej Saihat won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Al Shabab | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +5 | 14 | Al Shabab won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 | Al Kholood won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 12 | Al Riyadh won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Al-Fayha won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Al-Hazm won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 | Al-Faisaly FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 | Al-Fateh won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Al Taawon won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 3 | Abha won 0 of the last 5 |