How are CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions made?

A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.

When are CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions published?

At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

Club competition

CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

Every CONMEBOL Sudamericana match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana page.

1 match in the next 14 days, 0 of them with a forecast published.

Every match, one prediction

Sat 21 Nov

CONMEBOL Sudamericana1Most likely prediction

21:00 UTC

Final

Atletico-MG

Boca Juniors

Prediction pending

About these predictions

How are CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions made?: A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions published?: At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.