Round of 128
Spain
Copa del Rey predictions
Every Copa del Rey match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Copa del Rey page.
10 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Real Betis, 57% against Navalcarnero away; the most evenly balanced game is Badajoz v Tenerife (Badajoz 37%, draw 26%, Tenerife 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Navalcarnero v Real Betis, at 3.52.
Every match, one prediction
Today
Copa del Rey3Most likely prediction
Tomorrow
Copa del Rey1Most likely prediction
Wed 18 Nov
Copa del Rey6Most likely predictionRound of 128
Round of 128
Round of 128
Round of 128
Round of 128
Round of 128
Match by match
Calvo Sotelo v AlbaceteThu 12 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Calvo Sotelo 43%, the draw 26% and Albacete 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Albacete are 21st on 10 points from 13. Albacete have won three of their last five.
Navalcarnero v Real BetisThu 12 Nov, 18:00
Our model makes Navalcarnero 22%, the draw 21% and Real Betis 57%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Real Betis are 4th on 26 points from 12. Real Betis have won three of their last five.
Tarancón v LevanteThu 12 Nov, 18:00
Our model makes Tarancón 32%, the draw 25% and Levante 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Levante are 17th on 11 points from 12. Levante have won one of their last five.
Salamanca UDS v Celta VigoFri 13 Nov, 20:00
Our model makes Salamanca UDS 26%, the draw 27% and Celta Vigo 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Celta Vigo to win at 47%. Celta Vigo are 11th on 13 points from 12. Celta Vigo have won one of their last five.
Utebo v SabadellWed 18 Nov, 18:00
Our model makes Utebo 28%, the draw 28% and Sabadell 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Sabadell to win at 44%. Sabadell are 13th on 18 points from 13. Sabadell have won one of their last five.
Portugalete v Real UniónWed 18 Nov, 18:00
Our model makes Portugalete 34%, the draw 25% and Real Unión 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%.
Alcoyano v MallorcaWed 18 Nov, 19:00
Our model makes Alcoyano 27%, the draw 27% and Mallorca 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.60 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Mallorca to win at 47%. Mallorca are 6th on 22 points from 12. Mallorca are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).
Badajoz v TenerifeWed 18 Nov, 19:00
Our model makes Badajoz 37%, the draw 26% and Tenerife 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Tenerife are 14th on 15 points from 12. Tenerife are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat).
Deportiva Minera v FC CartagenaWed 18 Nov, 19:30
Our model makes Deportiva Minera 34%, the draw 25% and FC Cartagena 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%.
Reddis v BarakaldoWed 18 Nov, 19:30
Our model makes Reddis 34%, the draw 25% and Barakaldo 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%.
About these predictions
- How are Copa del Rey predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Copa del Rey predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.