How are AFC Champions League Elite predictions made?

A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.

When are AFC Champions League Elite predictions published?

At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

How often do home teams win in AFC Champions League Elite?

46% of matches this season, over 67 played, with 24% drawn and 30% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.19 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 55%.

Club competition

AFC Champions League Elite predictions

Every AFC Champions League Elite match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the AFC Champions League Elite page.

No AFC Champions League Elite fixtures in the next 14 days.

Nothing scheduled in the next 14 days. The AFC Champions League Elite table and statistics are up to date.

The numbers this season

AFC Champions League Elite has averaged 3.19 goals a game over 67 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 55% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 24% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are AFC Champions League Elite predictions made?: A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are AFC Champions League Elite predictions published?: At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in AFC Champions League Elite?: 46% of matches this season, over 67 played, with 24% drawn and 30% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.19 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 55%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.