Leyton Orient v Plymouth

14:00 UTCLeyton Orient11thPlymouth4th

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Plymouth 46%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.76

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketFree

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Leyton Orient	29.8%	3.36	3.45 Marathonbet	29.0%	+0.8
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-2.2
Match result	Plymouth	45.7%	2.19	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-4.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.8%	1.21	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.2%	5.81	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.9%	1.64	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.1%	2.56	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-6.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.5%	2.60	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.5%	1.63	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.7%	1.59	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.3%	2.68	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-6.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Premium markets

No premium selection on this fixture yet

Asian handicap
Correct score
Total goals

The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.

Explore Premium Selections

Plymouth favoured against Leyton Orient

Our model makes Leyton Orient 30% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 24% and Plymouth at 46%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Leyton Orient against 1.76 for Plymouth — a clear edge to Plymouth on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 0-1 7%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Leyton Orient and Plymouth
Leyton Orient		Plymouth
7	Played	8
3-1-3	W-D-L	4-1-3
1.43	Pts / game	1.63
1.86	Goals for / game	1.75
1.29	Goals against / game	1.38
57%	Over 2.5	50%
57%	BTTS	50%
43%	Clean sheets	25%
0%	Failed to score	25%
1-0-3	Home record	2-0-2
2-1-0	Away record	2-1-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leyton Orient · Plymouth

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	13.0
—	Shots on target	3.0
—	Corners	3.0
—	Cards	3.00
—	Fouls	11.0
—	Possession %	57
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	9.0
—	Shots on target	4.0
—	Corners	4.0
—	Cards	3.00
—	Fouls	4.0
—	Possession %	43
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leyton Orient	Metric	Plymouth
1.25	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
0.66	Expected goals (xG)	1.85 (better)
	Big chances
4.75	Shots on target	7.40 (better)
16.00	Total shots	16.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.50 (better)	Corners	4.80
49.5 (better)	Possession %	48.2
415 (better)	Passes	362
	Tackles
8.50 (better)	Fouls	10.60
3.25 (better)	Offsides	3.80
	Throw-ins
1.00	Yellow cards	1.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Leyton Orient wins: 1
Draws: 0
Plymouth wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Leyton Orient v Plymouth1–32026-02-17
Plymouth v Leyton Orient0–12025-08-19

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bradford	7	5	0	2	+3	15	Bradford won 3 of the last 5
2	Sheffield Wednesday	7	4	2	1	+7	14	Sheffield Wednesday won 3 of the last 5
3	Stockport County	8	4	1	3	+7	13	Stockport County won 2 of the last 5
4	Plymouth	8	4	1	3	+3	13	Plymouth won 3 of the last 5
5	Cambridge United	8	3	4	1	+2	13	Cambridge United won 2 of the last 5
6	Huddersfield	7	3	3	1	+5	12	Huddersfield won 2 of the last 5
7	Burton Albion	8	3	3	2	+1	12	Burton Albion won 2 of the last 5
8	AFC Wimbledon	8	3	3	2	-2	12	AFC Wimbledon won 2 of the last 5
9	Reading	7	3	2	2	+7	11	Reading won 3 of the last 5
10	Oxford United	6	3	2	1	+6	11	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
11	Leyton Orient	7	3	1	3	+4	10	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
12	Wycombe	8	2	4	2	-3	10	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
13	Stevenage	7	2	3	2	+3	9	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
14	Leicester	7	2	3	2	-2	9	Leicester won 2 of the last 5
15	Blackpool	7	2	2	3	0	8	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
16	Luton	7	2	2	3	-2	8	Luton won 1 of the last 5
17	Mansfield Town	7	2	2	3	-3	8	Mansfield Town won 1 of the last 5
18	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	-5	8	Barnsley won 2 of the last 5
19	Bromley	7	2	2	3	-10	8	Bromley won 1 of the last 5
20	Notts County	7	1	4	2	-2	7	Notts County won 1 of the last 5
21	Doncaster	7	1	3	3	-1	6	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	0	6	1	-2	6	Milton Keynes Dons won 0 of the last 5
23	Peterborough	8	1	2	5	-9	5	Peterborough won 0 of the last 5
24	Wigan	7	1	1	5	-7	4	Wigan won 1 of the last 5