Rep. Of Ireland v Israel

18:45 UTCRep. Of IrelandIsrael

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Rep. Of Ireland 45%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.33 – 0.95

Advised bets

Premium selection

★

Market: Total goals
Modelled edge: large

This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.

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Our probabilities against the marketFree

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Rep. Of Ireland	44.7%	2.24	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-4.1
Match result	Draw	29.4%	3.41	3.45 Betano	29.0%	+0.4
Match result	Israel	25.9%	3.86	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-1.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.4%	1.49	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.6%	3.06	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.0%	2.50	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-9.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.0%	1.67	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.8%	5.06	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.2%	1.25	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.0%	2.17	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-7.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.0%	1.85	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+2.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Premium markets

1 premium selection on this fixture

Asian handicap
Correct score
Total goals

The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.

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Rep. Of Ireland favoured against Israel

Our model makes Rep. Of Ireland 45% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Israel at 26%. The goal projection is 1.33 for Rep. Of Ireland against 0.95 for Israel — a clear edge to Rep. Of Ireland on expected output. A combined 2.29 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 11%; 2-0 9%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Rep. Of Ireland and Israel
Rep. Of Ireland		Israel
2	Played	2
1-0-1	W-D-L	0-0-2
1.50	Pts / game	0.00
1.50	Goals for / game	0.50
0.50	Goals against / game	3.00
50%	Over 2.5	100%
0%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	50%
0-0-0	Home record	0-0-1
1-0-1	Away record	0-0-1
W1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rep. Of Ireland · Israel

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
6.0	Shots	6.5
2.0	Shots on target	2.5
2.0	Corners	2.0
2.00	Cards	2.00
13.5	Fouls	10.0
40	Possession %	57
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	14.0
6.0	Shots on target	6.0
1.5	Corners	4.0
0.50	Cards	2.50
14.0	Fouls	13.5
61	Possession %	44
—	xG	—
2 matches	sample	2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rep. Of Ireland	Metric	Israel
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
	Expected goals (xG)	4.43
	Big chances
4.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
12.40 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.60 (better)	Corners	4.40
46.0	Possession %	57.4 (better)
326	Passes	544 (better)
	Tackles
9.60	Fouls	9.20 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
1.33 (better)	Yellow cards	1.40
0.33	Red cards	0.25 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Rep. Of Ireland wins: 1
Draws: 0
Israel wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Israel v Rep. Of Ireland0–32026-09-27