Rep. Of Ireland v Austria
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Austria 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.15 – 1.33
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★Confidence 4 of 5- Selection
- Rep. Of Ireland
- Advised price
- 3.59 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 1.21 units
- Fair price
- 3.19 · qualifies at 3.38+
Back Rep. Of Ireland to win at 3.59 with 1xBet.
Our model puts the chance at 31%, which is a fair price of 3.19. The offered 3.59 implies only 28%, so the price is 12.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.21 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Rep. Of Ireland 1.15, Austria 1.33.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Rep. Of Ireland | 31.4% | 3.19 | 3.50 Marathonbet | 28.6% | +2.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.6% | 3.50 | 3.30 Bet365 | 30.3% | -1.7 |
| Match result | Austria | 40.1% | 2.50 | 2.25 Betano | 44.4% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.5% | 3.51 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.25 Betano | 44.4% | +0.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 1.67 Betano | 59.9% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.7% | 4.23 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.9% | 1.97 | 1.91 William Hill | 52.4% | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.91 William Hill | 52.4% | -3.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
No premium selection on this fixture yet- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Austria favoured against Rep. Of Ireland
Our model makes Rep. Of Ireland 31% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Austria at 40%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Rep. Of Ireland against 1.33 for Austria — a slight edge to Austria on expected output. A combined 2.47 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 10%
- 0-0 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 9%
This season
| Rep. Of Ireland | Austria | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Played | 2 |
| 1-0-1 | W-D-L | 2-0-0 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 3.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 3.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 0% | BTTS | 100% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-0-0 | Home record | 2-0-0 |
| 1-0-1 | Away record | 0-0-0 |
| W1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rep. Of Ireland · Austria
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 6.0 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 7.5 |
| 2.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 13.5 | Fouls | 18.0 |
| 40 | Possession % | 52 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 1.0 |
| 1.5 | Corners | 1.5 |
| 0.50 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 9.5 |
| 61 | Possession % | 49 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Form comparison
| Rep. Of Ireland | Metric | Austria |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.76 | |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 (better) | Shots on target | 3.80 |
| 12.40 (better) | Total shots | 10.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.60 (better) | Corners | 3.00 |
| 46.0 (better) | Possession % | 43.8 |
| 326 | Passes | 436 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.60 (better) | Fouls | 14.20 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.33 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.