Netherlands v Serbia
- Over 1.5
- 70%
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Over 3.5
- 23%
- Both score
- 47%
- Model pick
- Netherlands 52%
- Likely score
- 1-0 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.55 – 0.88
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Netherlands | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -14.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.1% | 3.69 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -6.3 |
| Match result | Serbia | 20.7% | 4.84 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -46.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
No premium selection on this fixture yet- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Netherlands favoured against Serbia
Our model makes Netherlands 52% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Serbia at 21%. The goal projection is 1.55 for Netherlands against 0.88 for Serbia — a substantial edge to Netherlands on expected output. A combined 2.43 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 13%
- 1-1 13%
- 2-0 11%
- 0-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| Netherlands | Serbia | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Played | 2 |
| 1-1-0 | W-D-L | 0-0-2 |
| 2.00 | Pts / game | 0.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 100% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-1-0 | Home record | 0-0-2 |
| 1-0-0 | Away record | 0-0-0 |
| W1 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Netherlands · Serbia
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 23.5 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 9.0 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 8.0 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 9.0 |
| 61 | Possession % | 36 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Conceded
| 10.5 | Shots | 25.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 8.5 |
| 2.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 8.5 |
| 40 | Possession % | 64 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 2 matches |
Form comparison
| Netherlands | Metric | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.60 |
| 1.56 | Expected goals (xG) | |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.80 (better) | Shots on target | 5.25 |
| 16.60 (better) | Total shots | 11.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 54.6 (better) | Possession % | 41.0 |
| 502 (better) | Passes | 370 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.60 | Fouls | 8.50 (better) |
| 2.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Netherlands wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Serbia wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Serbia v Netherlands1–22026-09-27