Luxembourg v Bulgaria
- Over 1.5
- 61%
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Over 3.5
- 15%
- Both score
- 41%
- Model pick
- Luxembourg 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.09 – 0.92
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Luxembourg | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Draw | 32.2% | 3.11 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Bulgaria | 29.3% | 3.41 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 32.7% | 3.06 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 14.5% | 6.89 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
No premium selection on this fixture yet- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Luxembourg favoured against Bulgaria
Our model makes Luxembourg 38% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 32% and Bulgaria at 29%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Luxembourg against 0.92 for Bulgaria — a slight edge to Luxembourg on expected output. A combined 2.01 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 33% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 14%
- 1-0 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 2-0 8%
This season
| Luxembourg | Bulgaria | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Played | 1 |
| 1-0-0 | W-D-L | 0-0-1 |
| 3.00 | Pts / game | 0.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 100% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 100% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-0-0 | Home record | 0-0-1 |
| 1-0-0 | Away record | 0-0-0 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Luxembourg · Bulgaria
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.0 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 17.0 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 10.0 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 17.0 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Luxembourg | Metric | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.80 (better) |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 7.00 (better) |
| 11.25 (better) | Total shots | 10.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.50 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 54.0 (better) | Possession % | 52.0 |
| 462 (better) | Passes | 414 |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.75 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Luxembourg wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Bulgaria wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Bulgaria v Luxembourg1–22026-09-26