Chesterfield v Tranmere
- Over 1.5
- 74%
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Over 3.5
- 27%
- Both score
- 49%
- Model pick
- Chesterfield 55%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.70 – 0.91
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★Confidence 3 of 5- Selection
- Both teams to score — No
- Advised price
- 2.15 (William Hill)
- Stake
- 1.88 units
- Fair price
- 1.98 · qualifies at 2.06+
Model probability 48% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 8.7%. Projection: 1.70–0.91. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Premium selection
★★★★Confidence 4 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Premium selection
★★★Confidence 3 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- moderate
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Premium selection
★★Confidence 2 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- small
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chesterfield | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.72 Betano | 58.1% | -2.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.4% | 3.94 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Tranmere | 19.4% | 5.16 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | -1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26.0% | 3.85 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | -9.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | +4.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 26.5% | 3.77 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.68 Marathonbet | 59.5% | -10.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 50.5% | 1.98 | 2.15 William Hill | 46.5% | +4.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
3 premium selections on this fixture- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Chesterfield favoured against Tranmere
Our model makes Chesterfield 55% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 25% and Tranmere at 19%. The goal projection is 1.70 for Chesterfield against 0.91 for Tranmere — a substantial edge to Chesterfield on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 12%
- 2-0 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Chesterfield | Tranmere | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Played | 8 |
| 3-2-3 | W-D-L | 2-5-1 |
| 1.38 | Pts / game | 1.38 |
| 1.38 | Goals for / game | 1.25 |
| 1.25 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 25% |
| 63% | BTTS | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 1-2-1 | Home record | 2-2-0 |
| 2-0-2 | Away record | 0-3-1 |
| L1 | Streak | D2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Chesterfield · Tranmere
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 27.0 | Shots | 21.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 12.0 | Shots on target | 11.0 |
| 11.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 0.00 | Cards | 0.00 |
| 6.0 | Fouls | 9.0 |
| 66 | Possession % | 45 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 7.0 | Shots | 7.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 2.0 |
| 2.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 4.00 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 9.0 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 34 | Possession % | 55 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Chesterfield | Metric | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 3.18 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.28 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 17.80 (better) | Total shots | 11.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 3.40 |
| 53.4 (better) | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 496 (better) | Passes | 379 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.20 (better) | Fouls | 10.60 |
| 2.20 | Offsides | 1.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Chesterfield wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Tranmere wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Chesterfield v Tranmere1–12026-04-11
- Tranmere v Chesterfield1–12025-10-25
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Cheltenham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 15 | Cheltenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Bristol Rovers won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | York won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +6 | 14 | Walsall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 13 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Salford City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 | Salford City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 12 | Gillingham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Crewe | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 12 | Crewe won 0 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | Tranmere won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Chesterfield | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 | Chesterfield won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Swindon Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Rotherham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | Rotherham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Fleetwood Town | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | Fleetwood Town won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Rochdale | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Rochdale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Newport County | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | Newport County won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 | Shrewsbury won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 | Accrington ST won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 | Oldham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Exeter City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 6 | Exeter City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 | Northampton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 | Port Vale won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 | Crawley Town won 0 of the last 5 |