Chesham United v Real Bedford
- Over 1.5
- 93%
- Over 2.5
- 80%
- Over 3.5
- 62%
- Both score
- 78%
- Model pick
- Chesham United 45%
- Likely score
- 2-1 7%
- Expected goals
- 2.28 – 1.99
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chesham United | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Draw | 20.6% | 4.87 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Real Bedford | 34.2% | 2.92 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 93.0% | 1.07 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 7.0% | 14.36 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 20.1% | 4.98 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 22.1% | 4.53 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
No premium selection on this fixture yet- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Chesham United favoured against Real Bedford
Our model makes Chesham United 45% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Real Bedford at 34%. The goal projection is 2.28 for Chesham United against 1.99 for Real Bedford — a clear edge to Chesham United on expected output. A combined 4.27 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 80% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-1 7%
- 1-2 6%
- 3-1 6%
This season
| Chesham United | Real Bedford | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Played | 2 |
| 1-0-0 | W-D-L | 2-0-0 |
| 3.00 | Pts / game | 3.00 |
| 7.00 | Goals for / game | 3.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 100% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 100% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 1-0-0 | Home record | 1-0-0 |
| 0-0-0 | Away record | 1-0-0 |
| W1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Chesham United · Real Bedford
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Chesham United | Metric | Real Bedford |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (better) | Goals scored | 2.40 |
| 2.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | ||
| Total shots | ||
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | ||
| Possession % | ||
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | ||
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.