Atletico-MG v RB Bragantino

21:30 UTCAtletico-MG7thRB Bragantino10th

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Atletico-MG 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.40 – 1.07

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the marketFree

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Atletico-MG	43.7%	2.29	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-3.9
Match result	Draw	28.3%	3.54	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-0.3
Match result	RB Bragantino	28.0%	3.57	3.60 Betano	27.8%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.5%	1.40	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.5%	3.50	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.9%	2.23	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-5.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.1%	1.81	1.88 Betano	53.2%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.6%	4.23	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.4%	1.31	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.3%	1.99	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-5.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.7%	2.01	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+0.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Premium markets

No premium selection on this fixture yet

Asian handicap
Correct score
Total goals

The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.

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Atletico-MG favoured against RB Bragantino

Our model makes Atletico-MG 44% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 28% and RB Bragantino at 28%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Atletico-MG against 1.07 for RB Bragantino — a clear edge to Atletico-MG on expected output. A combined 2.47 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Atletico-MG and RB Bragantino
Atletico-MG		RB Bragantino
27	Played	27
11-7-9	W-D-L	10-6-11
1.48	Pts / game	1.33
1.33	Goals for / game	1.22
1.19	Goals against / game	1.15
48%	Over 2.5	41%
48%	BTTS	52%
22%	Clean sheets	30%
33%	Failed to score	22%
7-5-1	Home record	6-2-5
4-2-8	Away record	4-4-6
D1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico-MG · RB Bragantino

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	15.0
—	Shots on target	5.0
—	Corners	5.0
—	Cards	3.00
—	Fouls	15.0
—	Possession %	34
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	11.0
—	Shots on target	6.0
—	Corners	2.0
—	Cards	3.00
—	Fouls	9.0
—	Possession %	66
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atletico-MG	Metric	RB Bragantino
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.60	Goals conceded	1.60
1.58 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.44
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
13.20	Total shots	17.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	6.60 (better)
53.8 (better)	Possession %	47.4
543 (better)	Passes	372
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	11.60
2.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Atletico-MG wins: 1
Draws: 0
RB Bragantino wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

RB Bragantino v Atletico-MG1–02026-02-04
RB Bragantino v Atletico-MG2–02025-11-16
Atletico-MG v RB Bragantino2–12025-08-03

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	+32	60	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	+26	57	Palmeiras won 2 of the last 5
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	+11	49	Atletico Paranaense won 2 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	+8	48	Fluminense won 3 of the last 5
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	+8	46	Bahia won 4 of the last 5
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Cruzeiro won 3 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	+4	40	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	+1	38	Santos won 4 of the last 5
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	-6	38	Coritiba won 2 of the last 5
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	+2	36	RB Bragantino won 1 of the last 5
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	+2	36	Sao Paulo won 3 of the last 5
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	-4	35	Botafogo won 1 of the last 5
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	-14	33	Vitoria won 1 of the last 5
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	-3	32	Corinthians won 0 of the last 5
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	-9	32	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	-7	31	Vasco DA Gama won 3 of the last 5
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	-8	29	Gremio won 1 of the last 5
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	-6	28	Internacional won 1 of the last 5
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	-15	23	Remo won 0 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	-24	18	Chapecoense-sc won 2 of the last 5