Sarmiento Junin v River Plate

17:45 UTCSarmiento Junin17thRiver Plate5th

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: River Plate 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sarmiento Junin	28.0%	3.57	—	—	—
Match result	Draw	27.0%	3.70	—	—	—
Match result	River Plate	45.0%	2.22	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.1%	1.33	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.9%	4.01	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.6%	2.02	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.4%	1.98	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.7%	3.62	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.3%	1.38	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.86	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.17	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

River Plate favoured against Sarmiento Junin

Our model makes Sarmiento Junin 28% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 27% and River Plate at 45%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Sarmiento Junin against 1.51 for River Plate — a clear edge to River Plate on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Sarmiento Junin and River Plate
Sarmiento Junin		River Plate
26	Played	30
11-2-13	W-D-L	15-4-11
1.35	Pts / game	1.63
1.15	Goals for / game	1.37
1.38	Goals against / game	0.93
50%	Over 2.5	37%
50%	BTTS	40%
31%	Clean sheets	33%
23%	Failed to score	30%
8-2-3	Home record	9-2-7
3-0-10	Away record	6-2-4
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sarmiento Junin · River Plate

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sarmiento Junin	Metric	River Plate
1.40	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.24	Expected goals (xG)	2.19 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	7.40 (better)
10.40	Total shots	20.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.60	Corners	4.00 (better)
34.8	Possession %	68.6 (better)
249	Passes	595 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	10.60 (better)
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Sarmiento Junin wins: 1
Draws: 0
River Plate wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

River Plate v Sarmiento Junin2–02026-03-15
River Plate v Sarmiento Junin0–12025-10-12

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Belgrano Cordoba	30	14	10	6	+12	52	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	29	14	10	5	+10	52	Argentinos JRS won 1 of the last 5
3	Independ. Rivadavia	27	15	6	6	+14	51	Independ. Rivadavia won 3 of the last 5
4	Rosario Central	29	14	8	7	+8	50	Rosario Central won 2 of the last 5
5	River Plate	30	15	4	11	+13	49	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
6	Boca Juniors	27	12	12	3	+16	48	Boca Juniors won 3 of the last 5
7	Velez Sarsfield	27	12	12	3	+11	48	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
8	Gimnasia L.P.	28	14	4	10	-1	46	Gimnasia L.P. won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	26	13	4	9	+6	43	Instituto Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
10	Estudiantes L.P.	27	12	5	10	+10	41	Estudiantes L.P. won 1 of the last 5
11	Independiente	27	11	8	8	+4	41	Independiente won 2 of the last 5
12	Huracan	28	9	13	6	+6	40	Huracan won 2 of the last 5
13	Lanus	27	11	7	9	+5	40	Lanus won 3 of the last 5
14	Union Santa Fe	28	10	7	11	+4	37	Union Santa Fe won 3 of the last 5
15	Defensa Y Justicia	26	9	10	7	-1	37	Defensa Y Justicia won 3 of the last 5
16	Gimnasia M.	26	10	6	10	-3	36	Gimnasia M. won 2 of the last 5
17	Sarmiento Junin	26	11	2	13	-6	35	Sarmiento Junin won 2 of the last 5
18	Talleres Cordoba	27	9	7	11	-3	34	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
19	San Lorenzo	27	8	10	9	-4	34	San Lorenzo won 1 of the last 5
20	Racing Club	28	8	9	11	-2	33	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
21	Barracas Central	26	8	9	9	-2	33	Barracas Central won 0 of the last 5
22	Tigre	26	7	11	8	+3	32	Tigre won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	26	7	10	9	-9	31	Newells Old Boys won 2 of the last 5
24	Atletico Tucuman	26	6	9	11	-4	27	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
25	Banfield	26	7	6	13	-7	27	Banfield won 0 of the last 5
26	Platense	26	5	10	11	-11	25	Platense won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	26	6	6	14	-16	24	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	26	3	12	11	-9	21	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	26	2	10	14	-17	16	Aldosivi won 2 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	26	2	5	19	-27	11	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 0 of the last 5