Girona v Mallorca
- Over 1.5
- 67%
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Over 3.5
- 19%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Girona 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.21 – 1.05
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Selection
- Both teams to score — No
- Advised price
- 2.18 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- Fair price
- 1.86 · qualifies at 1.94+
Model probability 39% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 16.9%. Projection: 1.21–1.05. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★Confidence 3 of 5- Selection
- Draw
- Advised price
- 3.63 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 0.90 units
- Fair price
- 3.32 · qualifies at 3.45+
Model probability 30% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 9.4%. Projection: 1.21–1.05. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Premium selection
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Premium selection
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Premium selection
★★★★Confidence 4 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Girona | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.18 Pinnacle | 45.9% | -6.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.1% | 3.32 | 3.63 1xBet | 27.5% | +2.6 |
| Match result | Mallorca | 30.9% | 3.24 | 3.30 1xBet | 30.3% | +0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 33.3% | 3.01 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | -14.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 2.06 1xBet | 48.5% | +12.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 19.2% | 5.20 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 46.4% | 2.16 | 1.67 William Hill | 59.9% | -13.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 53.6% | 1.86 | 2.18 1xBet | 45.9% | +7.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
3 premium selections on this fixture- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Girona favoured against Mallorca
Our model makes Girona 39% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 30% and Mallorca at 31%. The goal projection is 1.21 for Girona against 1.05 for Mallorca — a slight edge to Girona on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-0 11%
- 0-1 10%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Girona | Mallorca | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Played | 7 |
| 4-1-2 | W-D-L | 4-1-2 |
| 1.86 | Pts / game | 1.86 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 1.14 |
| 1.14 | Goals against / game | 0.43 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 14% |
| 71% | BTTS | 0% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 71% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 43% |
| 2-1-1 | Home record | 3-0-1 |
| 2-0-1 | Away record | 1-1-1 |
| W2 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Girona · Mallorca
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.0 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 0.00 | Cards | 6.00 |
| 8.0 | Fouls | 20.0 |
| 56 | Possession % | 54 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 20.0 | Shots | 12.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 2.0 |
| 4.00 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 17.0 |
| 44 | Possession % | 46 |
| — | xG | — |
| 1 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Girona | Metric | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 0.20 (better) |
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.63 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 13.60 (better) | Total shots | 12.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.00 | Corners | 4.60 (better) |
| 44.8 | Possession % | 54.6 (better) |
| 417 | Passes | 461 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.80 (better) | Fouls | 13.40 |
| 1.80 | Offsides | 1.75 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.20 |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Girona wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Mallorca wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Girona v Mallorca0–12026-05-01
- Mallorca v Girona1–22026-01-04
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 18 | Eibar won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Castellón | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 | Castellón won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 15 | Almeria won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 | Burgos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 13 | Girona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 13 | Mallorca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 12 | Sabadell won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 | Oviedo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leganes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 11 | Leganes won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 | Tenerife won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Las Palmas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Sporting Gijon won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Granada CF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Valladolid won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 | FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 | Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Eldense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 | Eldense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 4 | Cadiz won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 | AD Ceuta FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 | Albacete won 0 of the last 5 |