Exeter City v Rotherham
- Over 1.5
- 66%
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Over 3.5
- 19%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Exeter City 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.27 – 0.98
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★Confidence 4 of 5- Selection
- Both teams to score — No
- Advised price
- 2.08 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 2.00 units
- Fair price
- 1.84
Model probability 39% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 13.0%. Projection: 1.27–0.98. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★Confidence 3 of 5- Selection
- Exeter City
- Advised price
- 2.61 (Pinnacle)
- Stake
- 1.53 units
- Fair price
- 2.38
Model probability 42% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 9.9%. Projection: 1.27–0.98. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Premium selection available
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
The selection, the advised price and the staking are for patrons. Every premium call is published to the same archive as the free ones and is settled in public, win or lose.
Premium selection available
★★★★Confidence 4 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- large
The selection, the advised price and the staking are for patrons. Every premium call is published to the same archive as the free ones and is settled in public, win or lose.
Premium selection available
★★★Confidence 3 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- moderate
The selection, the advised price and the staking are for patrons. Every premium call is published to the same archive as the free ones and is settled in public, win or lose.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Exeter City | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.61 Pinnacle | 38.3% | +3.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.0% | 3.34 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | +0.6 |
| Match result | Rotherham | 27.9% | 3.58 | 2.72 Betano | 36.8% | -8.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 33.5% | 2.98 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 39.0% | 2.56 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -12.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.88 Pinnacle | 53.2% | +7.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 19.0% | 5.26 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 81.0% | 1.24 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.75 William Hill | 57.1% | -11.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 54.3% | 1.84 | 2.08 1xBet | 48.1% | +6.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Exeter City favoured against Rotherham
Our model makes Exeter City 42% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 30% and Rotherham at 28%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Exeter City against 0.98 for Rotherham — a clear edge to Exeter City on expected output. A combined 2.25 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 13%
- 0-0 11%
- 0-1 10%
- 2-0 8%
This season
| Exeter City | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Played | 8 |
| 1-3-4 | W-D-L | 2-4-2 |
| 0.75 | Pts / game | 1.25 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game | 1.38 |
| 0.75 | Goals against / game | 1.38 |
| 13% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 25% | BTTS | 75% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 63% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 1-3-0 | Home record | 1-3-0 |
| 0-0-4 | Away record | 1-1-2 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Exeter City · Rotherham
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Exeter City | Metric | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 0.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.21 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.40 (better) | Shots on target | 4.20 |
| 12.20 (better) | Total shots | 11.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 3.80 |
| 47.0 | Possession % | 53.0 (better) |
| 332 | Passes | 388 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.20 | Fouls | 12.40 (better) |
| 2.75 | Offsides | 1.40 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 | Yellow cards | 1.80 |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Exeter City wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Rotherham wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 0%
- Exeter City v Rotherham0–42026-01-31
- Rotherham v Exeter City1–02025-09-06
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Cheltenham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 15 | Cheltenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Bristol Rovers won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | York won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +6 | 14 | Walsall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 13 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Salford City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 | Salford City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 12 | Gillingham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Crewe | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 12 | Crewe won 0 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tranmere | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | Tranmere won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Chesterfield | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 | Chesterfield won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Swindon Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Rotherham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | Rotherham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Fleetwood Town | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | Fleetwood Town won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Rochdale | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Rochdale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Newport County | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | Newport County won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 | Shrewsbury won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 | Accrington ST won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 | Oldham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Exeter City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 6 | Exeter City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 | Northampton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 | Port Vale won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 | Crawley Town won 0 of the last 5 |