Eldense v Oviedo
- Over 1.5
- 60%
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Over 3.5
- 14%
- Both score
- 41%
- Model pick
- Oviedo 34%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.00 – 1.01
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Eldense | 33.5% | 2.99 | 2.75 Pinnacle | 36.4% | -2.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 32.4% | 3.08 | 3.24 1xBet | 30.9% | +1.5 |
| Match result | Oviedo | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.72 1xBet | 36.8% | -2.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 39.6% | 2.52 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 32.5% | 3.08 | 2.22 Pinnacle | 45.0% | -12.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.76 1xBet | 56.8% | +10.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 14.4% | 6.94 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 40.9% | 2.44 | 1.83 William Hill | 54.6% | -13.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.98 Betano | 50.5% | +8.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Eldense v Oviedo: too close to call
Our model makes Eldense 34% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 32% and Oviedo at 34%. The goal projection is 1.00 for Eldense against 1.01 for Oviedo — almost nothing to Oviedo on expected output. A combined 2.01 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 33% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 14%
- 0-1 13%
- 1-0 13%
- 0-2 7%
This season
| Eldense | Oviedo | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Played | 7 |
| 1-2-4 | W-D-L | 3-2-2 |
| 0.71 | Pts / game | 1.57 |
| 0.57 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.29 | Goals against / game | 0.57 |
| 43% | Over 2.5 | 29% |
| 29% | BTTS | 14% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 71% |
| 57% | Failed to score | 43% |
| 0-2-1 | Home record | 1-2-1 |
| 1-0-3 | Away record | 2-0-1 |
| L2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Eldense · Oviedo
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Eldense | Metric | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| 0.40 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 | Shots on target | 4.20 (better) |
| 13.40 | Total shots | 13.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.20 (better) | Corners | 4.60 |
| 50.4 (better) | Possession % | 45.2 |
| 440 (better) | Passes | 366 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.80 | Fouls | 9.60 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 18 | Eibar won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Castellón | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 | Castellón won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 15 | Almeria won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 | Burgos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 13 | Girona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 13 | Mallorca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 12 | Sabadell won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 | Oviedo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leganes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 11 | Leganes won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 | Tenerife won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Las Palmas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Sporting Gijon won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Granada CF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Valladolid won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 | FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 | Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Eldense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 | Eldense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 4 | Cadiz won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 | AD Ceuta FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 | Albacete won 0 of the last 5 |