Cadiz v Leganes
- Over 1.5
- 69%
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Over 3.5
- 21%
- Both score
- 48%
- Model pick
- Leganes 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.09 – 1.25
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★Confidence 4 of 5- Selection
- Leganes
- Advised price
- 2.84 (1xBet)
- Stake
- 1.49 units
- Fair price
- 2.56
Model probability 39% against an offered price implying less, for a modelled edge of 11.0%. Projection: 1.09–1.25. The edge is an estimate and carries model error; stake accordingly.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cadiz | 31.4% | 3.19 | 2.58 1xBet | 38.8% | -7.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.30 1xBet | 30.3% | -0.7 |
| Match result | Leganes | 39.1% | 2.56 | 2.84 1xBet | 35.2% | +3.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 31.4% | 3.18 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 20.8% | 4.80 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Leganes favoured against Cadiz
Our model makes Cadiz 31% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 30% and Leganes at 39%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Cadiz against 1.25 for Leganes — a slight edge to Leganes on expected output. A combined 2.34 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 0-0 10%
- 1-0 10%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Cadiz | Leganes | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Played | 6 |
| 0-4-3 | W-D-L | 3-2-1 |
| 0.57 | Pts / game | 1.83 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.43 | Goals against / game | 0.83 |
| 43% | Over 2.5 | 17% |
| 71% | BTTS | 33% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 0-2-2 | Home record | 2-0-0 |
| 0-2-1 | Away record | 1-2-1 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cadiz · Leganes
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Cadiz | Metric | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.95 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.94 |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.60 | Shots on target | 4.80 (better) |
| 9.80 | Total shots | 11.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.80 (better) | Corners | 3.20 |
| 51.8 (better) | Possession % | 46.6 |
| 461 (better) | Passes | 406 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 (better) | Fouls | 13.40 |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 2.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.60 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Cadiz wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Leganes wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Cadiz v Leganes3–02026-05-24
- Leganes v Cadiz1–12025-08-22
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +9 | 18 | Eibar won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Castellón | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 | Castellón won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +7 | 15 | Almeria won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 | Burgos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 13 | Girona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +5 | 13 | Mallorca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 12 | Sabadell won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 | Oviedo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leganes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 11 | Leganes won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 | Tenerife won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Las Palmas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | Sporting Gijon won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Granada CF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 | Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | Valladolid won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 | FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 | Cordoba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Eldense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 | Eldense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 4 | Cadiz won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 | AD Ceuta FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 | Albacete won 0 of the last 5 |