Azerbaijan v Lithuania
- Over 1.5
- 65%
- Over 2.5
- 37%
- Over 3.5
- 17%
- Both score
- 44%
- Model pick
- Lithuania 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 0.95 – 1.21
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Azerbaijan | 28.1% | 3.56 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Draw | 30.7% | 3.26 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Lithuania | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 17.4% | 5.75 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — | — |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lithuania favoured against Azerbaijan
Our model makes Azerbaijan 28% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 31% and Lithuania at 41%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Azerbaijan against 1.21 for Lithuania — a clear edge to Lithuania on expected output. A combined 2.17 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 13%
- 0-0 12%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-2 8%
This season
| Azerbaijan | Lithuania | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Played | 1 |
| 0-1-0 | W-D-L | 0-1-0 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 0% | Over 2.5 | 0% |
| 100% | BTTS | 100% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-0-0 | Home record | 0-1-0 |
| 0-1-0 | Away record | 0-0-0 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Azerbaijan · Lithuania
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Azerbaijan | Metric | Lithuania |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 5.00 (better) |
| 9.00 | Total shots | 12.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.00 | Corners | 4.00 (better) |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 62.0 (better) |
| 416 | Passes | 594 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 16.50 | Fouls | 14.50 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Azerbaijan wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Lithuania wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Lithuania v Azerbaijan1–12026-09-27